The Theory of Random Numbers in Real Estate

by Kurt Kreager

The Theory of Random Numbers in Real Estate 

I have always enjoyed numbers and have been very good at them. My father, who was a math teacher in his early years, would give us math problems at the dinner table. Like how many $1 dollar bills would fit in our swimming pool? We literally found every bill we could in the house, squeezed and measured the cubic volume that stack took up & then divided it into the cubic volume of the pool, which we had already calculated. Or estimating the time of arrival on a road trip by dividing the miles left by the speed of the car. It wasn’t till I did this myself as a dad that I realized dad could alter the arrival time by speeding up or slowing down!

So when I read a white paper a long time ago about the Theory of Random Numbers in Real Estate, I was intrigued. 

The white paper simply stated that statisticians had determined that houses whose list price ended on a round number with a lot of zero’s statistically closed for less than a similar priced home that ended up in random numbers, even if the random number was less than the round number with zero’s.

Let me give an example - under this theory, a home priced at $998,814 will statistically close for more than the same house priced at $1,000,000. The theory explained that the back of the mind see’s the random number ($998,814) as more accurate than the round number ($1,000,000). The result is that $998,814 will be countered less often or by a lower amount than $1,000,000. The mind sees the $1,000,000 as being pulled out of ones, well let’s say, back pocket instead of being accurate. It went on to say this difference was ‘statistically measurable’, which in real estate means $$$$ in the bank.

I have had clients use birthdays, favorite numbers, bible verses or just random numbers and have seen results. Using the day we submitted the offer as the last 3 digits, we beat out 5 other offers, when we were not even the highest. Numerous times I have countered expecting to ‘meet half way’ & had the counter offer  accepted as is. So, the next time you see one of my listings end in a random number, know that it is money in the bank for my clients!

In closing, I would love to give attribution to the authors of that white paper, but it has been so long ago, I can’t find it & do not know. Just know I give you attribution in my heart & used it to put money in my clients banks!  

GET MORE INFORMATION

Kurt Kreager

Kurt Kreager

Managing Broker | License ID: 21032790

+1(425) 829-4270

Name
Phone*
Message